David's Research Hub

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Broadband & Average Wireless Usage

How much cellular data a US line actually uses — the mean/median picture, the full distribution, every primary source, and every CX Mobile presentation built on those figures.

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In progress

MVNO Carrier Landscape

Sub-100K carrier deep-dive, ARPU/churn/CAC time series, and the roll-up thesis. Council research in flight.

Linking in once the council decks finalize
In progress

Regulatory & Compliance

VSC vs. MVNO frameworks, TCPA, FCC/state PUC filters — the three compliance filters and trigger language.

Pulling the primer + filters together
This hub is maintained by Claude. When you ask for new research, I add a page here and keep each one updated as the underlying material changes — so you never re-bookmark. Last hub update: May 20, 2026.

Broadband & Average Wireless Usage

US smartphone cellular data consumption — the sourced benchmarks behind CX Mobile's pricing, Bill Protection, and T-Mobile wholesale math.

Research prepared 2026-05-04 · page assembled 2026-05-20 · sources verified 2026-05-04 (Ericsson live page re-verify before client use)

US smartphone cellular usage averages ~15–22 GB per line/month (mean), with a likely median of ~8–13 GB.

Five independent measurement families converge on this. Usage is heavy-tailed: a small share of unlimited streamers and hotspot users pulls the mean well above the typical line — which is why the median sits materially below the mean, and why the right tail, not the average user, is where wholesale margin breaks.

Headline benchmarks, with sources

Each figure links to its primary source. Full source list with access dates at the bottom of this page.

SourceFigureNote
FCC 2024 Marketplace Report (citing CTIA YE-2023)1 15.5 GB/smartphone/mo (2023) +11% YoY. The regulator-blessed average; all-device figure is ~identical (15.3 GB).
CTIA 2025 Annual Survey (2024 data)4 ~19 GB/connection/mo 132.5 EB ÷ 579M connections ÷ 12. Denominator includes IoT/M2M, so phone-only runs higher.
Ericsson Mobility — North America6 21 GB (2024) → 25 (2025) → 49 (2031) Carrier-strategy benchmark. Not the 32→66 GB figures — those are India/Nepal/Bhutan.
Verizon Consumer Connections (carrier-disclosed)8 15.5 GB/line (Nov '23); ~17 GB mid-'24 City-level, skews higher-income. 11.5 GB (Jan '22) → 15.5 GB, +34% over 22 mo. extrapolated mid-'24.
Circana Q4 2024 panel × OpenSignal split1012 ~14–23 GB cellular 128.8 GB total (Wi-Fi+cellular) × 11–18% cellular share. Wi-Fi carries 82–89% of total.
USAC Lifeline floor (regulatory reference)15 4.5 GB/mo Subsidized-service floor, paused to Dec 1 2026 — context, not typical usage.

Distributional view — usage by percentile

A single average hides the right-tail risk that drives wholesale cost. The median line and the P75–P90 bands matter most for pricing and Bill Protection design.

ScenarioCellular GB/line/moUse this for
P25 — light user3–7 GBSizing the share of base on capped / $5–$10 plans.
P50 — median / typical line8–13 GBMedian wholesale dollar. T-Mobile term-sheet "modeled median" of 8.9–10.8 GB sits here.
Mean — population average15–22 GBAggregate per-sub COGS and MPG-qualifying spend.
P75 — heavier than typical22–35 GBStress-test of variable cost at the upper-middle.
P90 — heavy unlimited streamer35–50 GB~50 GB is the typical 2024 "unlimited" deprioritization threshold. Sets Bill Protection cap.
P95+ — stress / extreme50–100+ GBHard cap, throttling, and the price step-up that prevents loss-leaders.
Two takeaways the research flags for CX Mobile.  (1) Nathan's 6 GB working assumption is below every external average — the lowest mean (15.5 GB) is 2.5×, Ericsson NA (21 GB) is 3.5×.  (2) The cost driver is the right tail, not the median — which is why the 18 GB Bill Protection cap is the single most important COGS-protection mechanism in the offer architecture. analysis

Our research & analysis

The canonical work product behind the summary above.

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CX_Mobile_US_Data_Usage_Benchmarks — canonical research doc

The full sourced memo: executive summary, source-by-source detail, distributional model, T-Mobile diligence questions, counter-arguments, and gaps. Survived four Codex adversarial audit rounds (v1→final). Prepared 2026-05-04.

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NotebookLM Source Pack — 2026-05-07

Filtered source pack: source map, correction trail (the six v1 errata), key numbers, all public source URLs, and the audio-overview prompt.

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US Wireless Data Usage Benchmarks & Strategy 2024–2026 — NotebookLM notebook

11 selected sources (2 Google Docs + 9 clean public imports). Listen to the research as a briefing instead of re-reading the packet.

Presentations & memos built on these usage figures

The research doc explicitly names the first three as citing/using these usage assumptions. The rest are related CX Mobile work that draws on the same pricing/usage picture.

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CX_Mobile_Offer_Strategy_and_App  uses these figures

Offer architecture — the 18 GB Bill Protection cap traces directly to the distributional model.

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CX_Mobile_TMobile_Rate_Negotiation_Brief  uses these figures

Wholesale negotiation playbook — the per-sub COGS math is built on the 15–22 GB mean band.

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CoverageX_MVNO_Memo  uses these figures

The MVNO thesis memo — usage sensitivity modeled at 9 and 15 GB.

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CoverageX_MVNO_Deck  related deck

The MVNO opportunity deck companion to the memo.

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CX Mobile Packaging v2 — Throttled-Unlimited Idea  related

The post-cap QoS / throttle-speed packaging concept that depends on where the usage curve rolls over.

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CoverageX MVNO Carrier ARPU / Churn / CAC Time Series  related model

Carrier economics workbook the usage figures feed into.

Want any of these added or removed from this list, or a deck verified line-by-line for its usage figures? Tell me and I'll update the page.

Open question that matters most: the T-Mobile diligence ask

The 8.9–10.8 GB "modeled median" in the term sheet has the largest leverage on the wholesale-cost pencil. Before modeling against it, ask T-Mobile to disclose:

  1. Distributional shape — P25/P50/P75/P90/P95/P99 of cellular GB per smartphone line.
  2. Mean vs. median — confirm 8.9–10.8 is the median, and the corresponding mean for the same denominator.
  3. Hotspot inclusion — handset-only, or handset + tethered/hotspot traffic?
  4. Throttling / cap treatment — measured pre- or post-deprioritization? GB billable vs. GB over the air?
  5. Prepaid vs. postpaid split — CX Mobile's base looks more like prepaid than postpaid.
  6. Plan-tier mix of the denominator.
  7. Smartphone-only denominator — excludes tablets, IoT, connected-car, FWA gateways.
  8. Time period & trend — what year/quarter, and the YoY growth in T-Mobile's own series.
  9. Wi-Fi calling — is VoWiFi counted as cellular-line data?
  10. CoverageX-cohort sample read — usage for subscribers matching the VSC demographic profile.

What we still don't have data gaps

  • Carrier-disclosed prepaid vs. postpaid average GB/line (10-Ks publish ARPU/ARPA, not usage).
  • Boost / Mint / Cricket / Visible / Tracfone subscriber average usage — not publicly disclosed.
  • A clean FCC P25/P50/P75 distribution histogram (only the ≤10 / 10–25 / >25 GB tier framework exists).
  • Demographic splits of cellular (not total) consumption by income/race/age.
  • CoverageX VSC base actual cellular consumption — no primary measurement; the T-Mobile cohort read above is the cleanest path to close it.

Sources & footnotes

All primary sources, hyperlinked. Dynamic pages (Ericsson live key-figures, vendor pages) verified 2026-05-04 — re-verify before any client-facing use.

1

FCC 2024 Communications Marketplace Report (FCC 24-136A1)

¶66: 15.5 GB/smartphone/mo in 2023, +11% YoY. The regulator-blessed average.

Released 2024-12-31.

3

FCC 2024 Marketplace Report — Appendix G (FCC 24-136A10)

≤10 / 10–25 / >25 GB tier framework — supports low-median / high-mean compatibility.

4

CTIA 2025 Annual Survey Highlights (2024 data)

132.5 EB total US wireless data, 579M connections → ~19 GB/connection/mo. Third straight ~35% growth year.

Published 2025-09.

5

Ericsson Mobility Report — November 2024 (PDF)

North America 2024 ≈ 22 GB/active smartphone/mo.

6

Ericsson Mobility Report — live key figures

North America: 21 GB (2024), 25 GB (2025), 49 GB (2031). Use for client-facing material.

Live page — verified 2026-05-04; re-verify before reuse.

7

Ericsson Mobility Report — November 2025

Current forecast context and regional trend.

8

Verizon Consumer Connections Report — press release

City-level: 11.5 GB/line (Jan '22) → 15.5 GB (Nov '23), +34%.

Published 2024-03-11.

9

Verizon Consumer Connections Report 2023 (PDF)

Carrier-disclosed context behind the press release.

10

Circana ConnectedIntelligence Q4 2024 Data Consumption Report

128.8 GB total smartphone data/mo (Wi-Fi + cellular), up from 124.5 GB Q4 '23. Video = 83% of total.

11

Circana / NPD — unlimited-plan usage

Unlimited subscribers consume 67% more cellular data than limited-plan subscribers. Older, directional.

12

OpenSignal — Wi-Fi vs. cellular split (Oct 2024)

Wi-Fi carries 82–89% of total US smartphone data; cellular carries 11–18%.

Published 2024-10-31.

13

Pew Research — internet use & digital divides

Smartphone-only: 28% of <$30K households, 25% of Hispanic adults. Exposure for the smartphone-dependent cohort.

Published 2026-01.

14

NTIA Internet Use Survey — 2023 update

Household fixed + mobile connectivity by income (80% of $100K+ vs. 54% of <$25K have both).

15

USAC Lifeline — Minimum Service Standards

Mobile Lifeline floor 4.5 GB/mo, paused to Dec 1 2026. Regulatory floor, not typical usage.

16

Tefficient — mobile data usage & revenue, FY2024

Global per-country context. Supplemental, not a main US source family.

Maintained by Claude in David's Brain. Internal working reference — confidential source links included. Median/mean planning bands and the 6 GB-too-low and right-tail conclusions are analysis built on the sourced figures above. Page assembled 2026-05-20 from the 2026-05-04 research and 2026-05-07 source pack.